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Asia Chess Game

by John on 05/05/2013

 

It could be a bloody and tense summer.  We’re seeing the moves now.

Watch closely.  It will affect us.

Let me scan the area.  Tell me your thoughts and what I am missing here.

It all begins with China.  It always begins with China.  China needs access to natural resources to keep their billions of new middle class citizens content.  China’s leaders have one big fear – bigger than the US: 1949 and populist rebellion.

To remove any chance of another Mao within their borders, the Chinese must control natural resources for products and jobs – from outside their borders.

China appears to have its eyes on Afghanistan – especially its unexploited minerals and its vast areas to build a gas pipeline from a Pakistani seaport.

To do this, China needs control of these areas.

The Chinese have chosen Pakistan as their ally.  Pakistan has nukes so it makes more sense to keep them friends.  Plus, the Taliban in Afghanistan wants to spread its form of extremist Islam to parts of China where the Chinese has kept most Chinese Muslims under wraps.

So, the Chinese are going to help Pakistan in its newly stepped-up skirmishes with Afghanistan.  That in turn has forced Afghan President Karzai into possible deals with the Taliban.

To help Pakistan further, the Chinese are pressuring Pakistan’s sworn enemy — India.  Pakistan can’t see straight when it comes to India; the Pakistanis will drop everything to battle India.  So, the Chinese will apparently keep India occupied so Pakistan can take care of Afghanistan.

So, at first, it seemed odd that the Chinese Army’s would enter disputed territory with India.  Sure, China and India have had border disputes for decades.  But the current timing now makes sense when you add Pakistan and Afghanistan into the mix.

The wild card is Russia.  Moscow has allied itself with Beijing – especially against the United States.  China and Russia want to keep us occupied financially and militarily in the Middle East, namely Syria right now, so they can exploit the Asian Pacific and Africa for resources, sea lanes for commerce, and allies.

But Moscow is friendly with India.  That goes back to the Soviet era. So how will China deal with that?  Time will tell.

So what does this mean for the US?

It could mean that China and Russia will have their hands full somewhere else and not interfere directly in Syria.  I have always contended: why are we fighting the Taliban and propping up Pakistan when that region is a more direct threat to China and Russia?  Trust me, neither country wants Muslim uprisings there.

Keeping China and Russia occupied in Asia means less help for Iran in the Middle East and Syria.  With Israel jumping into the fray now – without consequences so far from Sunni nations like Saudi, Turkey, and Egypt – it seems that the Islamic Republic of Iran and its Fascist government is losing its dominance.  That is only a good thing.

It could also mean economically for us a windfall for the military industrial complex.  India will need armaments and technology that we could provide.  The danger is, of course, more weapons in the world that could come back to bite us.

So you know my bias here.

  • I believe in the old Republican foreign policy – think of Ike – where we don’t consider ourselves the world’s cop.  We will intervene for friends and allies.  I’d prefer diplomacy or covert operations.
  • Right now, we need to re-tool our military to prepare for the battles of the 21st Century – namely versus low-tech insurgents. Right now, we have enough missile and fire power to stop China and Russia.
  • We also need to strengthen our economy so China is relying on us and not vice versa.

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